Will "reverso" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 21% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 2013 launches in the last hour referenced "reverso" (4 distinct creators, rank #176). Last 15m momentum 0.28×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -1.2801887814762751,
      "diversity": -0.21428571428571433
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.21235257741645955
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "reverso",
    "rank60": 176,
    "share15": 0.0010351966873706005,
    "share60": 0.003723932472691162,
    "total15": 482,
    "total60": 2013,
    "momentum": 0.2779848171152519,
    "diversity": 0.5714285714285714,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 260,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9937741666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989623611111111
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.21235257741645955
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.06303260125348922,
  "totalAfter": 12657,
  "shareBefore": 0.0005849419236232974,
  "totalBefore": 11967,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity