Ledger / Prediction #4065 · narrative · 24H
Will "otf" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
92 of 2013 launches in the last hour referenced "otf" (84 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.69×.
Made2026-10-14 18:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 18:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 18:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.436852599692241,
"momentum": 0.5249937080839203,
"diversity": 0.1956521739130434
},
"rawProbability": 0.569239557033131
},
"features": {
"term": "otf",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.07763975155279502,
"share60": 0.04592850049652433,
"total15": 482,
"total60": 2013,
"momentum": 1.6904482121873423,
"diversity": 0.9130434782608695,
"launches15": 37,
"launches60": 92,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 84
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 260,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9937741666666666,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997405902777777
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.569239557033131
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 18:30 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
24a538d8c013e7c2d539e36724f589c603c415bf0dd5549366cc34cf36e94dcdPrevious hash
21cddc448fa565b1d161534e2bdb54054efc4c70e62c17959e758b3a09e28412