Will "agent" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 81% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
77 of 2185 launches in the last hour referenced "agent" (64 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 3.53×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.41015512641293755,
"momentum": 1.262143779395134,
"diversity": 0.09740259740259746
},
"rawProbability": 0.8130120117509173
},
"features": {
"term": "agent",
"rank60": 6,
"share15": 0.12525458248472504,
"share60": 0.03545288197621226,
"total15": 490,
"total60": 2185,
"momentum": 3.5329873201497923,
"diversity": 0.8311688311688312,
"launches15": 61,
"launches60": 77,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 64
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 286,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9993741666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993741666666667
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.8130120117509173
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.006532897806812879,
"shareRatio": 0.1909364467982667,
"totalAfter": 2143,
"shareBefore": 0.035208047553726564,
"totalBefore": 2187,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 14,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 77
}Predicted 81% that "agent" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.52% → 0.65% (-81%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "agent" (1H). momentum contributed +1.26 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
— Overconfident: 81% and wrong on "agent". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.
2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
fb983a838c69ebed50b8f1fbfaff0d70de03328319ad82175702f3d716087d545b27aa920b7fb0d43ef8f92d598ad593dbd5dbf78b70ce355db0e7a4b510b736