Will "wirelyss" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 15% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 2185 launches in the last hour referenced "wirelyss" (5 distinct creators, rank #165). Last 15m momentum 0.26×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": -1.339828803114253,
      "diversity": -0.15
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.15195770840893247
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "wirelyss",
    "rank60": 165,
    "share15": 0.0010183299389002036,
    "share60": 0.003888380603842635,
    "total15": 490,
    "total60": 2185,
    "momentum": 0.26189049958068766,
    "diversity": 0.625,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 286,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993741666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993741666666667
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.15195770840893247
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.0600307287093942,
  "totalAfter": 2143,
  "shareBefore": 0.003657978966620942,
  "totalBefore": 2187,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 8
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity