GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #4079 · narrative · 6H

Will "limitless" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 18% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

72 of 2185 launches in the last hour referenced "limitless" (71 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.09×.

Made2026-10-14 19:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 01:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 19:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.40008423098729323,
      "momentum": -2.3847369128105016,
      "diversity": 0.2833333333333334
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.18378314899209958
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "limitless",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.003054989816700611,
    "share60": 0.033165599268069536,
    "total15": 490,
    "total60": 2185,
    "momentum": 0.09211321019734531,
    "diversity": 0.9861111111111112,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 72,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 71
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 286,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993741666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998956944444445
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.18378314899209958
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 01:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.034
Log loss0.203
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.00024205260609972567,
  "shareRatio": 0.04609581411004758,
  "totalAfter": 12394,
  "shareBefore": 0.006085686465433301,
  "totalBefore": 12324,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 75
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 18% that "limitless" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.61% → 0.02% (-96%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "limitless" (6H). momentum contributed -2.38 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd0c6ea5dc29ec25cab140ebfc057e233e6ebe7a4c07498bde52e4c4752744ff2
Previous hash4478fd5aa38b820b4782697232cfed19f5aa468222ff1728f25b8053d7caf605