Will "working" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 2185 launches in the last hour referenced "working" (5 distinct creators, rank #348). Last 15m momentum 1.21×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 0.19410155681170244,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.5114657620323817
},
"features": {
"term": "working",
"rank60": 348,
"share15": 0.003054989816700611,
"share60": 0.002516010978956999,
"total15": 490,
"total60": 2185,
"momentum": 1.2142195889650065,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 286,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9993741666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998956944444445
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5114657620323817
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0012102630304986284,
"shareRatio": 1.062928600242033,
"totalAfter": 12394,
"shareBefore": 0.0011359948068808828,
"totalBefore": 12324,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 15,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 14
}Predicted 51% that "working" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.11% → 0.12% (+7%). PARTIAL.
— "working" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
66cf8e6fc5154811f30dba214ac3e89f2cee26dc9d85c781f576be3543b83a0ad0c6ea5dc29ec25cab140ebfc057e233e6ebe7a4c07498bde52e4c4752744ff2