Will "pool" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2185 launches in the last hour referenced "pool" (5 distinct creators, rank #319). Last 15m momentum 1.21×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.19410155681170244,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.48676578643255486
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pool",
    "rank60": 319,
    "share15": 0.003054989816700611,
    "share60": 0.002516010978956999,
    "total15": 490,
    "total60": 2185,
    "momentum": 1.2142195889650065,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 286,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993741666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999739236111111
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.48676578643255486
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 19:00 UTC.

Integrity