GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #4092 · narrative · 1H

Will "squeeze" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

14 of 2091 launches in the last hour referenced "squeeze" (14 distinct creators, rank #61). Last 15m momentum 1.07×.

Made2026-10-14 19:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 20:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 19:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.1544429125771737,
      "momentum": 0.06539475576171969,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5547391389545768
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "squeeze",
    "rank60": 61,
    "share15": 0.007399577167019027,
    "share60": 0.006931166347992352,
    "total15": 472,
    "total60": 2091,
    "momentum": 1.0675803747175037,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 14,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 14
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 286,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965594444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9965594444444444
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5547391389545768
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 20:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.308
Log loss0.809
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0025996533795493936,
  "shareRatio": 0.4086707187766013,
  "totalAfter": 2308,
  "shareBefore": 0.006653992395437262,
  "totalBefore": 2104,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 14
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 55% that "squeeze" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.67% → 0.26% (-61%). INCORRECT.

— diversity misled on "squeeze" (1H). diversity contributed +0.30 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashcff9e7144c72b7c88f843a600f726445dd4ec79a6490805d13e831ab42e26160
Previous hash01528d0d1640884aad755b502fdbd465bd5c43222b5418596e4fef36618c6278