Ledger / Prediction #4094 · narrative · 6H
Will "wif" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 18% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
70 of 2091 launches in the last hour referenced "wif" (35 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.16×.
Made2026-10-14 19:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 01:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 19:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.39585859944228874,
"momentum": -1.8525415412511874,
"diversity": -0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.17804079444071483
},
"features": {
"term": "wif",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.005285412262156448,
"share60": 0.03369980879541109,
"total15": 472,
"total60": 2091,
"momentum": 0.1568380489706566,
"diversity": 0.5,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 70,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 35
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 286,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9965594444444444,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994265740740741
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.17804079444071483
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-15 01:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.032
Log loss0.196
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0061214495592556315,
"shareRatio": 0.7650387578958224,
"totalAfter": 12252,
"shareBefore": 0.0080147471347279,
"totalBefore": 12477,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 75,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 100
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 18% that "wif" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.80% → 0.61% (-24%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "wif" (6H). momentum contributed -1.85 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
dd11a361e3daf2abed8e7b4c75ab47cfbe01b198da0ff263b6fcb2dbaf26761cPrevious hash
6c8c8fbef6b7b7ad012363d8fc67eabfe303cec820babd6e024d9f949d949d1e