Ledger / Prediction #4097 · narrative · 24H
Will "women" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 19% → FADES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
67 of 2091 launches in the last hour referenced "women" (32 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.10×.
Made2026-10-14 19:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 19:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 19:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3892882060435298,
"momentum": -2.319882053077439,
"diversity": -0.32686567164179103
},
"rawProbability": 0.1932966796003909
},
"features": {
"term": "women",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.003171247357293869,
"share60": 0.032265774378585084,
"total15": 472,
"total60": 2091,
"momentum": 0.0982851773549448,
"diversity": 0.47761194029850745,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 67,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 32
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 286,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9965594444444444,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998566435185186
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.1932966796003909
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 19:30 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
1e33f79e0f8ab5cb8004aedf159594d5ae54bf88ed6c7e5302423791d9ab4a12Previous hash
5a6837f53a0bf4c2ae51039c644f83a3cc64ac4c87f6bc17327c2c05c4520593