GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #410 · narrative · 1H

Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

133 of 2215 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (104 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.98×.

Made2026-10-10 00:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 01:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 23:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.49213668236814795,
      "momentum": -0.022890988619246943,
      "diversity": 0.03834586466165408
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5517123142103855
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "quantum",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.05888030888030888,
    "share60": 0.06024368231046932,
    "total15": 517,
    "total60": 2215,
    "momentum": 0.9773690223128425,
    "diversity": 0.7819548872180451,
    "launches15": 30,
    "launches60": 133,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 104
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 366,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965991666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9965991666666667
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5517123142103855
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 01:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.201
Log loss0.595
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.10235245563351217,
  "shareRatio": 1.7078404469660449,
  "totalAfter": 2423,
  "shareBefore": 0.05982905982905983,
  "totalBefore": 2223,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 248,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 133
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 55% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.98% → 10.24% (+71%). CORRECT.

— volume pointed the right way on "quantum" (1H). volume contributed +0.49 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9e9287fc4625e30ad858ed6e6e3be042e69487898afb8bca9cad730fe22966c9
Previous hash48725741b4a76be18dd76446a106fff3d5fd9907002f18594f4a24c4c3c7be74