Ledger / Prediction #4102 · token · 6H

Will $TRY still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 16m ago. No social links. No hot term.

Made2026-10-14 19:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 01:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 19:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05000000000000001
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "3gLnvBRq5bJ8bv1y4qahbVYHEu9Q75FB4ufB9ed8pump",
    "name": "Just Trying",
    "symbol": "TRY",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 16,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3022.063161697771,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 670,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.05000000000000001
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 01:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T19:29:34.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2919.5453266904424,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3022.7146873570355,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3022.063161697771,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6044.126323395542
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $TRY would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,920, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $TRY (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7530891e1dddb89d08bad63c7e06fad02a72c9a2e8bf11fb21d3f58dde9d29e0

Previous hashcd562a5a5467bc7d864af32074dd54fdb69c1137f997065b6820db2ea4b0b9e2