Ledger / Prediction #4103 · token · 1H

Will $CHRISSYPOO still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 22m ago. X link. No hot term. Creator launched 34 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-14 19:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 20:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 19:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.03407773968429842
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "26tvxjGcJBV7VGJgLkTHrBLN2pDjgUEd8Feh92Bypump",
    "name": "CHRISSYPOO",
    "symbol": "CHRISSYPOO",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 22,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 2744.7867365615743,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 34
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 670,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.03407773968429842
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 20:31 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.035

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T19:08:39.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 361.74913450662996,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 8710.112521370114,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 2744.7867365615743,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5489.573473123149
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 3% that $CHRISSYPOO would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $362, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $CHRISSYPOO (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha344279d6332bd4563232dc5afabdc15c7c3a37fd2e80ccb4074b0ae4b623d27

Previous hash7530891e1dddb89d08bad63c7e06fad02a72c9a2e8bf11fb21d3f58dde9d29e0