GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #4108 · narrative · 1H

Will "bro" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 76% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 2130 launches in the last hour referenced "bro" (8 distinct creators, rank #125). Last 15m momentum 2.95×.

Made2026-10-14 20:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 21:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 19:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": 1.0824138335724478,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7600428373109296
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "bro",
    "rank60": 125,
    "share15": 0.011773940345368918,
    "share60": 0.003988737681839512,
    "total15": 636,
    "total60": 2130,
    "momentum": 2.9517961030566076,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 303,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9934808333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9934808333333334
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7600428373109296
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 21:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.578
Log loss1.427
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0009033423667570009,
  "shareRatio": 0.2846899482140486,
  "totalAfter": 2214,
  "shareBefore": 0.003733084461035931,
  "totalBefore": 2143,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 8
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 76% that "bro" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.37% → 0.09% (-76%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "bro" (1H). momentum contributed +1.08 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 76% and wrong on "bro". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash95c716bc647c68268b3a690cc683c8fe9f8bf87e6cb3e7bbf16dd1be3a30fed3
Previous hashb42eff94262c155930032d29af7f3d99c405bce817aef7e505cd59b1f78c1371