Ledger / Prediction #411 · narrative · 1H

Will "paired" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 31% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

100 of 2215 launches in the last hour referenced "paired" (20 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.74×.

Made2026-10-10 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 01:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 23:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4493598410330986,
      "momentum": -0.2944730409619706,
      "diversity": -0.66
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.308932819631516
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "paired",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.033783783783783786,
    "share60": 0.045351985559566786,
    "total15": 517,
    "total60": 2215,
    "momentum": 0.7449240285061182,
    "diversity": 0.2,
    "launches15": 17,
    "launches60": 100,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 20
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 366,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965991666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9965991666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.308932819631516
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 01:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.095

Log loss0.369

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.011968633924886504,
  "shareRatio": 0.26666016355330113,
  "totalAfter": 2423,
  "shareBefore": 0.04543409806567701,
  "totalBefore": 2223,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 29,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 101
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 31% that "paired" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.54% → 1.20% (-74%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "paired" (1H). diversity contributed -0.66 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashfa67e8d2a7597c55a803c9f557b1465b12a9705f46a5e6e702651d6f2ae48511

Previous hash9e9287fc4625e30ad858ed6e6e3be042e69487898afb8bca9cad730fe22966c9