Will "nakamoto" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 14% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

52 of 2130 launches in the last hour referenced "nakamoto" (30 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.10×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.351270870922099,
      "momentum": -2.34777108496296,
      "diversity": -0.20769230769230776
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.13670457263553612
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "nakamoto",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.002354788069073783,
    "share60": 0.024636320976067574,
    "total15": 636,
    "total60": 2130,
    "momentum": 0.0955819690513568,
    "diversity": 0.5769230769230769,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 52,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 30
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 303,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9934808333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989134722222223
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.13670457263553612
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.009666388657214345,
  "totalAfter": 12099,
  "shareBefore": 0.004235958581738312,
  "totalBefore": 12748,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 54
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity