Ledger / Prediction #4111 · narrative · 6H

Will "jean" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 16% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

51 of 2130 launches in the last hour referenced "jean" (4 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.23×.

Made2026-10-14 20:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 02:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 19:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34835815804353376,
      "momentum": -1.4812418626478685,
      "diversity": -0.8058823529411765
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.16014679728177533
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "jean",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.005494505494505495,
    "share60": 0.02416705771938057,
    "total15": 636,
    "total60": 2130,
    "momentum": 0.22735516910274195,
    "diversity": 0.0784313725490196,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 51,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 303,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9934808333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989134722222223
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.16014679728177533
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 02:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.026

Log loss0.174

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0014877262583684603,
  "shareRatio": 0.1717380857028434,
  "totalAfter": 12099,
  "shareBefore": 0.008864135550674616,
  "totalBefore": 12748,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 18,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 113
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 16% that "jean" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.89% → 0.15% (-83%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "jean" (6H). momentum contributed -1.48 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashaab498c40ed06caebe77e8b97dad4ab54aa70dfaed9ba34085f4a72f4f9b16f0

Previous hasha1c9e929e35e490008639c673779f8a8396243197b4769b7042b4f1c6ce33af3