Will "tpad" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

34 of 2215 launches in the last hour referenced "tpad" (6 distinct creators, rank #18). Last 15m momentum 2.54×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28753839182730917,
      "momentum": 0.9329493677147397,
      "diversity": -0.688235294117647
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5578035170248083
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tpad",
    "rank60": 18,
    "share15": 0.03957528957528957,
    "share60": 0.015568592057761732,
    "total15": 517,
    "total60": 2215,
    "momentum": 2.5419954115606287,
    "diversity": 0.17647058823529413,
    "launches15": 20,
    "launches60": 34,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 366,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965991666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9965991666666667
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5578035170248083
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0016508460586050352,
  "shareRatio": 0.11967283684890227,
  "totalAfter": 2423,
  "shareBefore": 0.015294646873594242,
  "totalBefore": 2223,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 34
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity