Ledger / Prediction #4120 · token · 6H

Will $Kai still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 25m ago. X link. Rides hot term "trump". Creator launched 5 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-14 20:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 02:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 19:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.04545816672765576
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "2PBE7j2e7aGDU5jZoqTV2NHTtE72r94hb8uBnrqapump",
    "name": "Kai Trump",
    "symbol": "Kai",
    "hotTerms": [
      "trump"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 25,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 33,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 2927.5246066909494,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 5
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 684,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.04545816672765576
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 02:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.002

Log loss0.047

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T19:45:14.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2912.902176637982,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 2946.15684064097,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 2927.5246066909494,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5855.049213381899
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $Kai would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,913, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $Kai (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash30da00e328abf6efd0787f3b40b72ffd6078375835c5c6bad3a449ea5210e854

Previous hash754ef90eed3834cac7d48cd105e9da26558f32ef6d148894bbf2c280556c1a71