Will "gems" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

44 of 2306 launches in the last hour referenced "gems" (19 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.32621275822262413,
      "momentum": -3.004514575623309,
      "diversity": -0.3818181818181818
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "gems",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.0009560229445506692,
    "share60": 0.01928912006935414,
    "total15": 522,
    "total60": 2306,
    "momentum": 0.049562807484907725,
    "diversity": 0.4318181818181818,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 44,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 326,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990605555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990605555555555
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.012618589603462597,
  "totalAfter": 2055,
  "shareBefore": 0.019064124783362217,
  "totalBefore": 2308,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 44
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity