Ledger / Prediction #4126 · narrative · 6H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
52 of 2306 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (38 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.22×.
Made2026-10-14 20:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 02:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 20:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.351270870922099,
"momentum": 0.19745727393778145,
"diversity": -0.023076923076923127
},
"rawProbability": 0.5169824289127025
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.027724665391969407,
"share60": 0.022756827048114433,
"total15": 522,
"total60": 2306,
"momentum": 1.2183010106528271,
"diversity": 0.7307692307692307,
"launches15": 14,
"launches60": 52,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 38
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 326,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9990605555555555,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998434259259259
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5169824289127025
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-15 02:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.233
Log loss0.660
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.025546189575090316,
"shareRatio": 1.208351638815215,
"totalAfter": 11626,
"shareBefore": 0.02113858363858364,
"totalBefore": 13104,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 297,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 277
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 52% that "inu" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 2.11% → 2.55% (+21%). CORRECT.
— volume pointed the right way on "inu" (6H). volume contributed +0.35 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
b2a8549ec64bab0fda43e406d32f269fe2b692a208bc63390a833c20026e97c1Previous hash
b837727dca12e9683ab49ccbc4e265449bb995c2832c5257ab0d83c44d74b774