Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 45% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

47 of 2306 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (29 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.98×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3361064533913937,
      "momentum": -0.025232659768287168,
      "diversity": -0.15957446808510636
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4516291354017109
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.020076481835564052,
    "share60": 0.02058951018638925,
    "total15": 522,
    "total60": 2306,
    "momentum": 0.9750830230451846,
    "diversity": 0.6170212765957447,
    "launches15": 10,
    "launches60": 47,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 29
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 326,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990605555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998434259259259
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4516291354017109
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.017288835369000517,
  "shareRatio": 0.9643917618355549,
  "totalAfter": 11626,
  "shareBefore": 0.017933455433455432,
  "totalBefore": 13104,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 201,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 235
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity