Ledger / Prediction #4129 · narrative · 24H
Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 44% → FADES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
47 of 2306 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (29 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.98×.
Made2026-10-14 20:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 20:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 20:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3361064533913937,
"momentum": -0.025232659768287168,
"diversity": -0.15957446808510636
},
"rawProbability": 0.44414649262507905
},
"features": {
"term": "dog",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.020076481835564052,
"share60": 0.02058951018638925,
"total15": 522,
"total60": 2306,
"momentum": 0.9750830230451846,
"diversity": 0.6170212765957447,
"launches15": 10,
"launches60": 47,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 29
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 326,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9990605555555555,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999608564814815
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.44414649262507905
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 20:30 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
4cbd05ec1db0c191e2f31ee57b3e71477227d535d006c51123462c903335c8c0Previous hash
4b7bd6696cee61ece6e00c51d973eaba12be97fbb7c9cf0100239dc1e7777d1d