Ledger / Prediction #4139 · narrative · 1H
Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 62% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
81 of 2208 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (30 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 2.29×.
Made2026-10-14 21:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 22:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 20:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.4177516863357507,
"momentum": 0.8266400329198481,
"diversity": -0.45555555555555555
},
"rawProbability": 0.6198322239537062
},
"features": {
"term": "uxento",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.08432708688245315,
"share60": 0.036894522408329564,
"total15": 586,
"total60": 2208,
"momentum": 2.2856261953783923,
"diversity": 0.37037037037037035,
"launches15": 49,
"launches60": 81,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 30
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 294,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9960077777777778,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9960077777777778
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6198322239537062
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 22:05 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.384
Log loss0.967
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.018712916476494753,
"shareRatio": 0.5083084494580845,
"totalAfter": 2191,
"shareBefore": 0.037037037037037035,
"totalBefore": 2214,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 41,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 82
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 62% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.70% → 1.87% (-49%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "uxento" (1H). momentum contributed +0.83 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
51caeebcf874c72772d9fcfd30a0f809532ca3b68f3cd01b0fb59d87bd7e85a3Previous hash
85d5e071d2818d7c442e51bb29640d3f473045866e8c19c85f91516f3a64dfb6