GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #4139 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 62% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

81 of 2208 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (30 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 2.29×.

Made2026-10-14 21:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 22:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 20:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4177516863357507,
      "momentum": 0.8266400329198481,
      "diversity": -0.45555555555555555
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6198322239537062
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.08432708688245315,
    "share60": 0.036894522408329564,
    "total15": 586,
    "total60": 2208,
    "momentum": 2.2856261953783923,
    "diversity": 0.37037037037037035,
    "launches15": 49,
    "launches60": 81,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 30
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 294,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960077777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9960077777777778
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6198322239537062
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 22:05 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.384
Log loss0.967
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.018712916476494753,
  "shareRatio": 0.5083084494580845,
  "totalAfter": 2191,
  "shareBefore": 0.037037037037037035,
  "totalBefore": 2214,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 41,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 82
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 62% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.70% → 1.87% (-49%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "uxento" (1H). momentum contributed +0.83 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash51caeebcf874c72772d9fcfd30a0f809532ca3b68f3cd01b0fb59d87bd7e85a3
Previous hash85d5e071d2818d7c442e51bb29640d3f473045866e8c19c85f91516f3a64dfb6