Ledger / Prediction #4141 · narrative · 6H

Will "fix6900" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 31% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

127 of 2208 launches in the last hour referenced "fix6900" (3 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.72×.

Made2026-10-14 21:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 20:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.48521237610367357,
      "momentum": -0.32417286345577895,
      "diversity": -0.8716535433070867
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.31057557325491564
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "fix6900",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.041737649063032366,
    "share60": 0.05771842462652784,
    "total15": 586,
    "total60": 2208,
    "momentum": 0.7231252296489293,
    "diversity": 0.023622047244094488,
    "launches15": 24,
    "launches60": 127,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 294,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960077777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993346296296296
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.31057557325491564
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 03:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.096

Log loss0.372

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00008867606632969761,
  "shareRatio": 0.00994574102029533,
  "totalAfter": 11277,
  "shareBefore": 0.01333633026148198,
  "totalBefore": 13347,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 178
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 31% that "fix6900" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.33% → 0.01% (-99%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "fix6900" (6H). diversity contributed -0.87 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha2d79129ca85b6eb87f095d25bad4dee1e6dbbdb8e2b8bc0f01f2ce7cf5e4bd0

Previous hash8e11e78b1d0965e3e747a93bee3a8822728c56020b4e9927b87a531573334155