Ledger / Prediction #4142 · narrative · 6H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

81 of 2208 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (30 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 2.29×.

Made2026-10-14 21:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 20:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4177516863357507,
      "momentum": 0.8266400329198481,
      "diversity": -0.45555555555555555
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5627143079992221
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.08432708688245315,
    "share60": 0.036894522408329564,
    "total15": 586,
    "total60": 2208,
    "momentum": 2.2856261953783923,
    "diversity": 0.37037037037037035,
    "launches15": 49,
    "launches60": 81,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 30
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 294,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960077777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993346296296296
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5627143079992221
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 03:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.317

Log loss0.827

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.01791256539859892,
  "shareRatio": 0.7454665450593057,
  "totalAfter": 11277,
  "shareBefore": 0.02405034839289728,
  "totalBefore": 13347,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 202,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 321
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 56% that "uxento" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 2.41% → 1.79% (-26%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "uxento" (6H). momentum contributed +0.83 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha4548aa4d82917a4e5cab2a8739b7b47a99547f380346e4cc7c49e0bbba446b3

Previous hasha2d79129ca85b6eb87f095d25bad4dee1e6dbbdb8e2b8bc0f01f2ce7cf5e4bd0