Ledger / Prediction #415 · narrative · 6H

Will "burned" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

34 of 2215 launches in the last hour referenced "burned" (6 distinct creators, rank #16). Last 15m momentum 2.54×.

Made2026-10-10 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 23:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28753839182730917,
      "momentum": 0.9329493677147397,
      "diversity": -0.688235294117647
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5181362212822559
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "burned",
    "rank60": 16,
    "share15": 0.03957528957528957,
    "share60": 0.015568592057761732,
    "total15": 517,
    "total60": 2215,
    "momentum": 2.5419954115606287,
    "diversity": 0.17647058823529413,
    "launches15": 20,
    "launches60": 34,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 366,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965991666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994331944444445
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5181362212822559
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 06:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.268

Log loss0.730

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0019042887895346912,
  "shareRatio": 0.37049568600913546,
  "totalAfter": 12078,
  "shareBefore": 0.005218866201317764,
  "totalBefore": 15329,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 23,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 80
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 52% that "burned" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.52% → 0.19% (-64%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "burned" (6H). momentum contributed +0.93 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashff334758e879dc4439099f4f6460fea6ff0d0d826b5a048c0efb9d782169e9e1

Previous hash29fb281eb731ce230f053a8724d70554494373dc17dd4e9facf3135938d1d646