Will "muse" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 37% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

50 of 2032 launches in the last hour referenced "muse" (36 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.51×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34538776394910686,
      "momentum": -0.6712279707908838,
      "diversity": -0.03600000000000003
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.36510187127588944
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "muse",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.0126953125,
    "share60": 0.02484013772749631,
    "total15": 511,
    "total60": 2032,
    "momentum": 0.5110806002475248,
    "diversity": 0.72,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 50,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 36
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 293,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918833333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9986472222222222
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.36510187127588944
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0022791503327559484,
  "shareRatio": 0.538803852403789,
  "totalAfter": 10969,
  "shareBefore": 0.004277031590005253,
  "totalBefore": 13327,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 25,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 57
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity