Ledger / Prediction #416 · narrative · 6H

Will "rofl" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 29% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2215 launches in the last hour referenced "rofl" (4 distinct creators, rank #393). Last 15m momentum 0.39×.

Made2026-10-10 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 23:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": -0.9444114671906791,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2851437515130224
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "rofl",
    "rank60": 393,
    "share15": 0.0009652509652509653,
    "share60": 0.0024819494584837547,
    "total15": 517,
    "total60": 2215,
    "momentum": 0.3889083889083889,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 366,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965991666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994331944444445
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2851437515130224
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 06:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.081

Log loss0.336

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00008279516476237788,
  "shareRatio": 0.34613039911491766,
  "totalAfter": 12078,
  "shareBefore": 0.0003261791375823602,
  "totalBefore": 15329,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 29% that "rofl" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.03% → 0.01% (-75%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "rofl" (6H). momentum contributed -0.94 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8da4802e23a466256f29f702bbf1d7b419a486359b78387a35a60879e4136365

Previous hashff334758e879dc4439099f4f6460fea6ff0d0d826b5a048c0efb9d782169e9e1