Ledger / Prediction #4170 · narrative · 1H

Will "hello" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 63% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

52 of 2169 launches in the last hour referenced "hello" (3 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 3.71×.

Made2026-10-14 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 23:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 21:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.351270870922099,
      "momentum": 1.312365367891878,
      "diversity": -0.8307692307692307
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6301515474758044
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "hello",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.08987783595113438,
    "share60": 0.024193548387096774,
    "total15": 572,
    "total60": 2169,
    "momentum": 3.714950552646888,
    "diversity": 0.057692307692307696,
    "launches15": 51,
    "launches60": 52,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 325,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9882255555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9882255555555556
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6301515474758044
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 23:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.397

Log loss0.995

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0105866784296427,
  "shareRatio": 0.4510288065843621,
  "totalAfter": 2267,
  "shareBefore": 0.023733455043359195,
  "totalBefore": 2191,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 24,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 52
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 63% that "hello" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.37% → 1.06% (-55%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "hello" (1H). momentum contributed +1.31 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashade3c615ccefdd6930f5acd42c22aa829465a5c62f6bb63c44ccacd1efcb9586

Previous hash900e36c01a2ddb14b4cd76b5fa3c43bf52f19541b03b56e3dc8e04556adc8f1d