Ledger / Prediction #4171 · narrative · 1H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 62% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
52 of 2169 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (26 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 2.06×.
Made2026-10-14 22:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 23:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 21:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.351270870922099,
"momentum": 0.7206876474967924,
"diversity": -0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.6158472065556038
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.049738219895287955,
"share60": 0.024193548387096774,
"total15": 572,
"total60": 2169,
"momentum": 2.055846422338569,
"diversity": 0.5,
"launches15": 28,
"launches60": 52,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 26
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 325,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9882255555555556,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9882255555555556
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6158472065556038
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 23:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.148
Log loss0.485
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.036612262902514334,
"shareRatio": 1.5371798101956833,
"totalAfter": 2267,
"shareBefore": 0.023733455043359195,
"totalBefore": 2191,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 83,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 52
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 62% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.37% → 3.66% (+54%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed +0.72 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
9ed6f4e56b128266d8730800dfc84d8c67677849cb3d7d93c3574cf340a092b7Previous hash
ade3c615ccefdd6930f5acd42c22aa829465a5c62f6bb63c44ccacd1efcb9586