GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #4171 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 62% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

52 of 2169 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (26 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 2.06×.

Made2026-10-14 22:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 23:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 21:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.351270870922099,
      "momentum": 0.7206876474967924,
      "diversity": -0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6158472065556038
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.049738219895287955,
    "share60": 0.024193548387096774,
    "total15": 572,
    "total60": 2169,
    "momentum": 2.055846422338569,
    "diversity": 0.5,
    "launches15": 28,
    "launches60": 52,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 26
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 325,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9882255555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9882255555555556
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6158472065556038
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 23:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.148
Log loss0.485
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.036612262902514334,
  "shareRatio": 1.5371798101956833,
  "totalAfter": 2267,
  "shareBefore": 0.023733455043359195,
  "totalBefore": 2191,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 83,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 52
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 62% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.37% → 3.66% (+54%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed +0.72 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9ed6f4e56b128266d8730800dfc84d8c67677849cb3d7d93c3574cf340a092b7
Previous hashade3c615ccefdd6930f5acd42c22aa829465a5c62f6bb63c44ccacd1efcb9586