Ledger / Prediction #4172 · narrative · 1H

Will "rough" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 76% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 2169 launches in the last hour referenced "rough" (5 distinct creators, rank #259). Last 15m momentum 3.79×.

Made2026-10-14 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 23:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 21:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": 1.3315967298197655,
      "diversity": 0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7611409563295434
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "rough",
    "rank60": 259,
    "share15": 0.011343804537521814,
    "share60": 0.0029953917050691246,
    "total15": 572,
    "total60": 2169,
    "momentum": 3.7870855148342053,
    "diversity": 0.8333333333333334,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 325,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9882255555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9882255555555556
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7611409563295434
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 23:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.579

Log loss1.432

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.000882223202470225,
  "shareRatio": 0.3717270383937051,
  "totalAfter": 2267,
  "shareBefore": 0.0027384755819260614,
  "totalBefore": 2191,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 6
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 76% that "rough" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.27% → 0.09% (-68%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "rough" (1H). momentum contributed +1.33 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 76% and wrong on "rough". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash51f4fad1b475006c2b60c7a781cf6d946fa7e4864ba5e54bc85d4a812d6f2989

Previous hash9ed6f4e56b128266d8730800dfc84d8c67677849cb3d7d93c3574cf340a092b7