Will "toad" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 20% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

12 of 2169 launches in the last hour referenced "toad" (11 distinct creators, rank #85). Last 15m momentum 0.15×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.13132031060308497,
      "momentum": -1.8872790950484353,
      "diversity": 0.19999999999999996
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.19954011113929537
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "toad",
    "rank60": 85,
    "share15": 0.0008726003490401396,
    "share60": 0.00576036866359447,
    "total15": 572,
    "total60": 2169,
    "momentum": 0.15148342059336822,
    "diversity": 0.9166666666666666,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 12,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 325,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9882255555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9980375925925926
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.19954011113929537
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 04:00 UTC.

Integrity