Ledger / Prediction #4180 · narrative · 24H
Will "robot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 44% → FADES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
6 of 2169 launches in the last hour referenced "robot" (3 distinct creators, rank #257). Last 15m momentum 1.46×.
Made2026-10-14 22:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 22:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 21:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.027348233519093188,
"momentum": 0.3760852847923293,
"diversity": -0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.43824609705946455
},
"features": {
"term": "robot",
"rank60": 257,
"share15": 0.004363001745200698,
"share60": 0.0029953917050691246,
"total15": 572,
"total60": 2169,
"momentum": 1.45657135185931,
"diversity": 0.5,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 6,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 3
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 325,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9882255555555556,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995093981481481
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.43824609705946455
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 22:00 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
29aa8b98ede118edac4267f2064100a785634b0169e32aea435421b36fb7e6a1Previous hash
8670a844faa87322e9f9d7735404b515ed90e92d9d79566797e8ea8c5aa3b1c6