GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #4182 · token · 6H

Will $COGE still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 14m ago. X link, website. No hot term. Creator launched 7 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-14 22:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 04:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 21:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.04545816672765576
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "9H5FL1DjPPdCFp1ojeLjHpqzHQtsY9NNbgi8yznfpump",
    "name": "Cogecoin",
    "symbol": "COGE",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 14,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 33,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3094.5662387560187,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 7
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 782,
  "calibration": null
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.04545816672765576
}
Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 04:00 UTC.

Integrity

Hash88e3d89049acabc03d80d9a18c0d03d53a61d360b42803ec9c62795427e6eae4
Previous hash00c9891d95909589b0a681614b7d50356db375ed0ced634587cb0ecaaafd5542