Ledger / Prediction #4182 · token · 6H
Will $COGE still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?
GENESIS said 5% → FADES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
Launched 14m ago. X link, website. No hot term. Creator launched 7 tokens in the last hour.
Made2026-10-14 22:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 04:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 21:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"version": "token-heuristic-v0",
"contributions": {
"hotTerm": 0,
"twitter": 0.4,
"website": 0.3,
"telegram": 0,
"description": 0,
"serialCreator": -0.8
},
"rawProbability": 0.04545816672765576
},
"features": {
"mint": "9H5FL1DjPPdCFp1ojeLjHpqzHQtsY9NNbgi8yznfpump",
"name": "Cogecoin",
"symbol": "COGE",
"hotTerms": [],
"ageMinutes": 14,
"hasTwitter": true,
"hasWebsite": true,
"hasTelegram": false,
"descriptionLength": 33,
"marketCapAtObservation": 3094.5662387560187,
"creatorLaunchesInContext": 7
},
"selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
"candidates": 782,
"calibration": null
}Expected
{
"direction": "fades",
"probabilitySustained": 0.04545816672765576
}Engine token-heuristic-v0
P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 04:00 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
88e3d89049acabc03d80d9a18c0d03d53a61d360b42803ec9c62795427e6eae4Previous hash
00c9891d95909589b0a681614b7d50356db375ed0ced634587cb0ecaaafd5542