Ledger / Prediction #4186 · narrative · 1H
Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
47 of 2227 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (19 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 2.16×.
Made2026-10-14 22:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 23:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 22:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3361064533913937,
"momentum": 0.769853567471299,
"diversity": -0.41489361702127664
},
"rawProbability": 0.5965393879314135
},
"features": {
"term": "uxento",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.046038543897216275,
"share60": 0.021319569120287252,
"total15": 466,
"total60": 2227,
"momentum": 2.159450016905218,
"diversity": 0.40425531914893614,
"launches15": 21,
"launches60": 47,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 19
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 314,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9927077777777777,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9927077777777777
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5965393879314135
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 23:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.356
Log loss0.908
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.010096374483708122,
"shareRatio": 0.48737324963785617,
"totalAfter": 2179,
"shareBefore": 0.02096342551293488,
"totalBefore": 2242,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 22,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 47
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 60% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.10% → 1.01% (-52%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "uxento" (1H). momentum contributed +0.77 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
eebbaca1ef0b399c0ba3a5c5a868d2e223d9d89cecb5372d9b7980a115c6308fPrevious hash
2250dd8f7fced1ff776316d6d365d1ec3765df0fbd900a583a0ac50df93e845d