GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #4186 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

47 of 2227 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (19 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 2.16×.

Made2026-10-14 22:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 23:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 22:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3361064533913937,
      "momentum": 0.769853567471299,
      "diversity": -0.41489361702127664
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5965393879314135
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.046038543897216275,
    "share60": 0.021319569120287252,
    "total15": 466,
    "total60": 2227,
    "momentum": 2.159450016905218,
    "diversity": 0.40425531914893614,
    "launches15": 21,
    "launches60": 47,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 314,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9927077777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9927077777777777
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5965393879314135
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 23:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.356
Log loss0.908
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.010096374483708122,
  "shareRatio": 0.48737324963785617,
  "totalAfter": 2179,
  "shareBefore": 0.02096342551293488,
  "totalBefore": 2242,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 22,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 47
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 60% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.10% → 1.01% (-52%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "uxento" (1H). momentum contributed +0.77 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasheebbaca1ef0b399c0ba3a5c5a868d2e223d9d89cecb5372d9b7980a115c6308f
Previous hash2250dd8f7fced1ff776316d6d365d1ec3765df0fbd900a583a0ac50df93e845d