Ledger / Prediction #4187 · narrative · 1H

Will "bird" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

41 of 2227 launches in the last hour referenced "bird" (23 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.06×.

Made2026-10-14 22:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 23:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 22:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3156201231405311,
      "momentum": -2.8563102644183203,
      "diversity": -0.22682926829268285
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "bird",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.0010706638115631692,
    "share60": 0.018626570915619388,
    "total15": 466,
    "total60": 2227,
    "momentum": 0.05748045716054798,
    "diversity": 0.5609756097560976,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 41,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 314,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9927077777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9927077777777777
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 23:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0009178522257916476,
  "shareRatio": 0.06198187244390406,
  "totalAfter": 2179,
  "shareBefore": 0.018287243532560213,
  "totalBefore": 2242,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 41
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "bird" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.83% → 0.09% (-95%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "bird" (1H). momentum contributed -2.86 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4a0f245289ab585c1e543e112d2a7c18f1d798a43069b65d41223ac2b61295b5

Previous hasheebbaca1ef0b399c0ba3a5c5a868d2e223d9d89cecb5372d9b7980a115c6308f