Will "elon" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

27 of 2227 launches in the last hour referenced "elon" (10 distinct creators, rank #19). Last 15m momentum 3.21×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2529598430355343,
      "momentum": 1.1661150707900307,
      "diversity": -0.45555555555555555
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5925370877586039
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "elon",
    "rank60": 19,
    "share15": 0.03961456102783726,
    "share60": 0.012342908438061042,
    "total15": 466,
    "total60": 2227,
    "momentum": 3.2094997080007786,
    "diversity": 0.37037037037037035,
    "launches15": 18,
    "launches60": 27,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 314,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9927077777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987846296296297
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5925370877586039
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 04:30 UTC.

Integrity