Ledger / Prediction #4195 · narrative · 24H
Will "read" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 15% → FADES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
32 of 2227 launches in the last hour referenced "read" (11 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.07×.
Made2026-10-14 22:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 22:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 22:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.27844469855484394,
"momentum": -2.6118569265173597,
"diversity": -0.4875
},
"rawProbability": 0.15310456504575448
},
"features": {
"term": "read",
"rank60": 11,
"share15": 0.0010706638115631692,
"share60": 0.014587073608617595,
"total15": 466,
"total60": 2227,
"momentum": 0.07339812222039203,
"diversity": 0.34375,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 32,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 11
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 314,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9927077777777777,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996961574074074
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.15310456504575448
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 22:30 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
3e0e1fcbe24d9cfa6fb3d3223532e752bd82b1205488b588117d01a70b3fa29bPrevious hash
5308fd77f7708b54cc278674692a441e4946e74f2243e8697e90405971e2db4d