Ledger / Prediction #4200 · token · 6H
Will $◎ still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?
GENESIS said 11% → FADES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
Launched 18m ago. X link, website. No hot term.
Made2026-10-14 22:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 04:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 22:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"version": "token-heuristic-v0",
"contributions": {
"hotTerm": 0,
"twitter": 0.4,
"website": 0.3,
"telegram": 0,
"description": 0.2,
"serialCreator": 0
},
"rawProbability": 0.11461549863791237
},
"features": {
"mint": "umpbSTFLkFzArB2JfWUE8oU2QQtmuSvpbAJYMJ4pump",
"name": "Cult of Solana",
"symbol": "◎",
"hotTerms": [],
"ageMinutes": 18,
"hasTwitter": true,
"hasWebsite": true,
"hasTelegram": false,
"descriptionLength": 153,
"marketCapAtObservation": 8529.40744595749,
"creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
},
"selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
"candidates": 724,
"calibration": null
}Expected
{
"direction": "fades",
"probabilitySustained": 0.11461549863791237
}Engine token-heuristic-v0
P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 04:30 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
c19914c2ea0584f6322cf71a1f9c03c4fcdf8beea8a049837dfdc2fca1f7c22cPrevious hash
1beac844167c724f43e665fe19e9568e9b463b49cdfbd41f0e65bcdc02deb286