Ledger / Prediction #4203 · narrative · 1H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 40% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
83 of 2264 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (45 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.75×.
Made2026-10-14 23:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 00:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 22:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.42141040430437465,
"momentum": -0.2830355323957855,
"diversity": -0.24939759036144582
},
"rawProbability": 0.39866691782364755
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.027777777777777776,
"share60": 0.03686534216335541,
"total15": 629,
"total60": 2264,
"momentum": 0.7534930139720558,
"diversity": 0.5421686746987951,
"launches15": 17,
"launches60": 83,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 45
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 281,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9979897222222223,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9979897222222223
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.39866691782364755
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-15 00:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.362
Log loss0.920
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0438034188034188,
"shareRatio": 1.1963899217049083,
"totalAfter": 1872,
"shareBefore": 0.036612262902514334,
"totalBefore": 2267,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 82,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 83
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 40% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.66% → 4.38% (+20%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed -0.28 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
33a183a813a8210c8ce80d26fe3a9cffdc2f167c67bf04111bb6813ace2cd607Previous hash
e330f9c5efd45825cef50ea7c0d6135a486c059c2c7c3d8d0d87817ea9ec14f7