GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #4203 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 40% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

83 of 2264 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (45 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.75×.

Made2026-10-14 23:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 00:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 22:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.42141040430437465,
      "momentum": -0.2830355323957855,
      "diversity": -0.24939759036144582
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.39866691782364755
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.027777777777777776,
    "share60": 0.03686534216335541,
    "total15": 629,
    "total60": 2264,
    "momentum": 0.7534930139720558,
    "diversity": 0.5421686746987951,
    "launches15": 17,
    "launches60": 83,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 45
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 281,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979897222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9979897222222223
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.39866691782364755
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 00:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.362
Log loss0.920
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0438034188034188,
  "shareRatio": 1.1963899217049083,
  "totalAfter": 1872,
  "shareBefore": 0.036612262902514334,
  "totalBefore": 2267,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 82,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 83
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 40% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.66% → 4.38% (+20%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed -0.28 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash33a183a813a8210c8ce80d26fe3a9cffdc2f167c67bf04111bb6813ace2cd607
Previous hashe330f9c5efd45825cef50ea7c0d6135a486c059c2c7c3d8d0d87817ea9ec14f7