Will "sponsored" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 35% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

9 of 2264 launches in the last hour referenced "sponsored" (3 distinct creators, rank #166). Last 15m momentum 0.95×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.08816799973531786,
      "momentum": -0.05539084820078421,
      "diversity": -0.5
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3481783815790169
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "sponsored",
    "rank60": 166,
    "share15": 0.003968253968253968,
    "share60": 0.0041942604856512146,
    "total15": 629,
    "total60": 2264,
    "momentum": 0.9461152882205512,
    "diversity": 0.3333333333333333,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 9,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 281,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979897222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996649537037037
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3481783815790169
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 05:00 UTC.

Integrity