Ledger / Prediction #421 · narrative · 1H

Will "lmao" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

85 of 2261 launches in the last hour referenced "lmao" (5 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.07×.

Made2026-10-10 00:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 01:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 00:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4249820016084324,
      "momentum": -2.712637365109116,
      "diversity": -0.8294117647058823
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "lmao",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.002508361204013378,
    "share60": 0.03779840848806366,
    "total15": 597,
    "total60": 2261,
    "momentum": 0.06636155606407323,
    "diversity": 0.058823529411764705,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 85,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 332,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9938269444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9938269444444444
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 01:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0027269185820023374,
  "shareRatio": 0.07771082691151555,
  "totalAfter": 2567,
  "shareBefore": 0.03737906772207564,
  "totalBefore": 2274,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 7,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 85
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "lmao" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.74% → 0.27% (-93%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "lmao" (1H). momentum contributed -2.71 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb0a74cb00fec3be6b88d933755a49ba3a0b3bd9fa80898ac77e194f6f076e21c

Previous hash144413cd33cf0d2dce64312dbdc2e5728e1bb3e30ddca4fbe71a14bfadd314a8