GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #4212 · narrative · 24H

Will "chatgpt" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

75 of 2264 launches in the last hour referenced "chatgpt" (16 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 2.79×.

Made2026-10-14 23:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 23:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 22:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4062075301653315,
      "momentum": 1.024504316514388,
      "diversity": -0.6439999999999999
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.523322045021344
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chatgpt",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.09285714285714286,
    "share60": 0.03333333333333333,
    "total15": 629,
    "total60": 2264,
    "momentum": 2.785714285714286,
    "diversity": 0.21333333333333335,
    "launches15": 58,
    "launches60": 75,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 16
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 281,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979897222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999162384259259
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.523322045021344
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 23:00 UTC.

Integrity

Hash6066a31ca9c00bea0702fc9e91b1bf98e073810695b7cc3dac6409e18892a364
Previous hashddda361794b4b47e90b5007573ed70d0a39405962ac9fcea50e0188f89434907