Ledger / Prediction #4218 · narrative · 1H

Will "paired" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

82 of 2171 launches in the last hour referenced "paired" (18 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.19×.

Made2026-10-14 23:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 00:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 23:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4195922002245229,
      "momentum": -1.6730757715859617,
      "diversity": -0.6365853658536585
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.10064585345304287
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "paired",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.007128309572301426,
    "share60": 0.03798342541436464,
    "total15": 490,
    "total60": 2171,
    "momentum": 0.18766895019440846,
    "diversity": 0.21951219512195122,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 82,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 258,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949441666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9949441666666666
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.10064585345304287
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 00:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.010

Log loss0.106

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.005087620124364048,
  "shareRatio": 0.14182502996062316,
  "totalAfter": 1769,
  "shareBefore": 0.03763194125745755,
  "totalBefore": 2179,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 82
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 10% that "paired" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.76% → 0.51% (-86%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "paired" (1H). momentum contributed -1.67 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash079168e2782e3a2c4672703dbac9b9cc5a139ea266f1ec0083115d87b964e859

Previous hash77d49987a6d35277132628b8a96548dfd0f5cd4b7f4af483730e29719cabb184