Will "diamond" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 27% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

74 of 2171 launches in the last hour referenced "diamond" (40 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.21×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.40419407711551036,
      "momentum": -1.5710766036308403,
      "diversity": -0.2513513513513513
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2671527027903652
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "diamond",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.007128309572301426,
    "share60": 0.03430018416206262,
    "total15": 490,
    "total60": 2171,
    "momentum": 0.20782132068508316,
    "diversity": 0.5405405405405406,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 74,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 40
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 258,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949441666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997893402777778
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2671527027903652
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 23:30 UTC.

Integrity