Ledger / Prediction #4230 · token · 6H
Will $fih still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?
GENESIS said 7% → FADES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
Launched 17m ago. X link. No hot term.
Made2026-10-14 23:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 05:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 23:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"version": "token-heuristic-v0",
"contributions": {
"hotTerm": 0,
"twitter": 0.4,
"website": 0,
"telegram": 0,
"description": 0,
"serialCreator": 0
},
"rawProbability": 0.07280096915005271
},
"features": {
"mint": "7kh6Zp6D2x5QKbQByYLn2jRYMEqdtv67b4uaFgqPpump",
"name": "fih",
"symbol": "fih",
"hotTerms": [],
"ageMinutes": 17,
"hasTwitter": true,
"hasWebsite": false,
"hasTelegram": false,
"descriptionLength": 0,
"marketCapAtObservation": 7829.8233745131265,
"creatorLaunchesInContext": 2
},
"selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
"candidates": 634,
"calibration": null
}Expected
{
"direction": "fades",
"probabilitySustained": 0.07280096915005271
}Engine token-heuristic-v0
P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 05:30 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
e2b49550de7a3f7a4d26b9345d585785e3d2a670d02af3e9d4d9ef16f4bb7f4aPrevious hash
71127f419c8bf7d225f0fbb228ad2aaf79228949069e208e46042643c3212a7a