Will "followers" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 16% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

27 of 1870 launches in the last hour referenced "followers" (3 distinct creators, rank #26). Last 15m momentum 0.24×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2529598430355343,
      "momentum": -1.4099740028150278,
      "diversity": -0.7666666666666666
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.1615721717303482
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "followers",
    "rank60": 26,
    "share15": 0.0035885167464114833,
    "share60": 0.01469802244788883,
    "total15": 417,
    "total60": 1870,
    "momentum": 0.2441496302740322,
    "diversity": 0.1111111111111111,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 27,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 245,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996661111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999443518518518
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.1615721717303482
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 06:00 UTC.

Integrity