Ledger / Prediction #4249 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 39% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

52 of 1761 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (29 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.77×.

Made2026-10-15 00:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 01:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 00:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.351270870922099,
      "momentum": -0.26600182475622147,
      "diversity": -0.23076923076923073
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.39043116857958016
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.02283653846153846,
    "share60": 0.029795686719636776,
    "total15": 415,
    "total60": 1761,
    "momentum": 0.7664377289377289,
    "diversity": 0.5576923076923077,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 52,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 29
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 214,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968716666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9968716666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.39043116857958016
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 01:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.152

Log loss0.495

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.018246027074749854,
  "shareRatio": 0.6247058823529411,
  "totalAfter": 1699,
  "shareBefore": 0.029395138496325607,
  "totalBefore": 1769,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 31,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 52
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 39% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.94% → 1.82% (-38%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed -0.27 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc13b595f1be13c664c260d582b2ee0e6cfaa26b2151ad0556fb629327f005e5f

Previous hash6964ad56690337766e92ff25c6db3417b19cb72f2c8d68fb92f308cdda45fa87