Ledger / Prediction #425 · narrative · 6H
Will "mouse" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 68% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
52 of 2261 launches in the last hour referenced "mouse" (37 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 3.28×.
Made2026-10-10 00:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 06:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 00:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.351270870922099,
"momentum": 1.1873130590847607,
"diversity": -0.04615384615384612
},
"rawProbability": 0.6780229918025633
},
"features": {
"term": "mouse",
"rank60": 14,
"share15": 0.07608695652173914,
"share60": 0.023209549071618037,
"total15": 597,
"total60": 2261,
"momentum": 3.2782608695652176,
"diversity": 0.7115384615384616,
"launches15": 45,
"launches60": 52,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 37
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 332,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9938269444444444,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989711574074074
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6780229918025633
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 06:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.104
Log loss0.389
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.013928789065900584,
"shareRatio": 3.8457026838816537,
"totalAfter": 11487,
"shareBefore": 0.0036004189578423672,
"totalBefore": 15276,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 160,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 55
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 68% that "mouse" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.36% → 1.39% (+287%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "mouse" (6H). momentum contributed +1.19 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
71a053c36ef86b82c6f004a201a70fdcb7c0804e76540bd981654ad074d272a3Previous hash
0ec259308b8cbdfd740b92c499718e5598c0cb990e23c5eabc34cfed5147db3f